FOR ECON 221 Probability and Statistical Distributions & ECON 222 Statistical Estimation and Inference
Probability and Statistics Lab
Distribution Map
Bernoulli distribution
A single trial with two outcomes: success with probability p and failure with probability 1-p.
Binomial distribution
Counts successes in n independent Bernoulli trials with common success probability p.
Poisson distribution
Counts events occurring independently at a constant average rate \(\lambda\) over a fixed interval.
Hypergeometric distribution
Counts successes in K draws without replacement from a population of size N containing M successes.
Geometric distribution
Models the trial number on which the first success occurs.
Negative binomial distribution
Models the trial number on which the r-th success occurs.
Discrete uniform distribution
Assigns equal probability to every integer between a and b inclusive.
Uniform distribution
Chooses a point from an interval so probability is proportional to interval length.
Triangular distribution
A bounded continuous distribution with lower bound a, mode c, and upper bound b.
Exponential distribution
A waiting-time distribution for events occurring independently at a constant rate.
Normal distribution
The classic bell curve, symmetric around \(\mu\) with variance \(\sigma^2\).
Chi-square distribution
A sampling distribution formed by summing squared independent standard normal variables.
F distribution
The ratio of two independent chi-square variables scaled by their degrees of freedom.
Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing
Confidence intervals
Visualize the sampling uncertainty around the estimate while computing the interval.
Hypothesis testing
See the rejection region, test statistic, p-value, and decision together.
Lookup tables and power
Connect critical values and tail areas to the power calculation.
Statistical tables
Use the Z, t, chi-square, and F tables in the same style as the notes.
Regression Analysis
The Basics
Inspect the case data and compare variables in a two-dimensional regression workspace.
State public expenditures
Model 1960 state spending against economic ability, demographics, growth, and western-state status.
Home prices
Study Albuquerque resale prices with square footage, age, features, taxes, and missing entries.
Cheddar cheese taste
Model cheddar taste scores against acetic acid, hydrogen sulfide, and lactic acid measurements.
Soft drinks
Study soft drink consumption with age, income, gender, and urban/rural indicators.
Soda promotions
Explore soda consumption, income, work status, and binary consumption outcomes.
Homer
Use the main y, x, and D1-D3 indicator data before the richer story is added.
Simulations
Random number generators
Generate and inspect a linear congruential sequence.
Birthday paradox
Add people to a calendar heat map and see shared birthdays appear.
Bayes theorem simulation
Simulate the red-red, white-white, and mixed-card question.
Monty Hall
Choose the number of doors and compare staying with switching.
Airplane seat problem
Let one passenger lose a ticket, then watch whether the last passenger gets the assigned seat.
Finite population sampling
Rank random numbers and return a sample without replacement.
Galton board
Drop animated balls through pegs with a chosen right-move probability.
Poisson approximation
Choose n and p, then compare the binomial PMF with Poisson(lambda=np).
German tank problem
Sample plate numbers and estimate the hidden population size.
Law of Large Numbers
Draw from a chosen distribution and watch the running mean converge to \(\mu\).
Central Limit Theorem
Choose a distribution, build sums, and watch the standardized sum move toward the normal curve.
Disclosure of ballot box results
Reveal ballot boxes over time and track intervals and a one-sided test.
BLUE?
Generate random data, move a candidate line, and watch OLS keep the lowest MSE and highest \(R^2\).