FOR ECON 221 PROBABILITY AND STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS & ECON 222 STATISTICAL ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE

Lecture Notes in Probability and Statistics

‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’

‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,’ said the Cat.

‘I don't much care where--’ said Alice.

‘Then it doesn't matter which way you go,’ said the Cat.

‘--so long as I get SOMEWHERE,’ Alice added as an explanation.

‘Oh, you're sure to do that,’ said the Cat, ‘if you only walk long enough.’

Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll

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Overview Essence of These Lecture Notes This set of lecture notes was prepared to guide the students through ECON \(221\) & ECON \(222\) at Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; yet, sticking to these notes alone may not result in the best possible outcomes in t... Chapter 1 Describing data As discussed in the opening lectures, an analytical and evidence-based approach to policymaking is a must for the modern & complex societies.... Chapter 2 Probability basics We refrain from giving a crystal-clear and simple definition of probability and provide you with three perspectives to obtain/come up with probabilities.... Chapter 3 Random variables Earlier we entered the world of data and learned a rich collection of descriptive statistics, followed by developing a solid understanding of the probability theory.... Chapter 4 Sampling distributions This chapter bridges our knowledge of the probability theory to statistical inference.... Chapter 5 Point estimators Point estimation Based on our earlier studies and practice, we now move toward the study of estimating population parameters.... Chapter 6 Confidence intervals Confidence interval estimation: One population At the surface, the problem of interval estimation seems to be a straightforward one.... Chapter 7 Hypothesis testing Hypothesis testing: One population A sizable volume of scientific efforts involve questions on a given population parameter.... Chapter 8 Linear regression analysis In the previous chapters that served the whole ECON 221 and about a half of ECON 222, we studied the fundamentals of Probability theory and the key theory and toolset of Statistical inference....